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Linn Group Morning Soybean CommentCHICAGO - Sep 7/06 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group. Soybean Update: Soybeans traded lower on Wednesday by 7 ½ cents in the November contract. This is the lowest close since February 2005. Traders say this is a key close below 550 and a technically weak close, breaking the market 8 cents in the last 15 minutes of trade. Informa economics released their crop production estimates yesterday and shows soybean estimate at 42 bpa and for a 3.108 bil. bu. crop. Overnight China reportedly bought more U.S bean cargos. One estimate puts it at 5 so far this week. Rising freight rates are limiting China's soybean purchases despite a pick-up in meal demand from the poultry and hog industries. Reports out of China say the hog and poultry industry sectors are faring a lot better and have returned to profitability recently. Traders say at current premiums, Chinese crushing margins are still negative and little interest at premiums of 180 cents and below. Funds on Wednesday sold 1,000 Soybeans, 1,500 meal and 3,500 Oil. Overnight Chinese soybeans, meal and oil futures closed lower. Malaysian palm oil futures closed mixed. eCBOT Overnight Contract Last Net Change High Low ZU6 N/A 0^0 N/A N/A ZX6 545^6 -1^0 547^4 545^2 ZF7 559^2 -0^4 560^0 558^6 ZH7 572^4 0^6 572^4 571^2 ZK7 582^0 -0^4 582^0 582^0 ZMV6 159.5 0.3 159.6 159.2 ZMU6 158.8 0.2 158.9 158.6 ZMZ6 161.5 -0.1 162.0 161.4 ZLU6 24.32 0.04 24.32 24.25 ZLV6 24.44 -0.01 24.48 24.40 ZLZ6 24.85 -0.04 24.93 24.80 Early Opening Calls: steady/lower Top News -- South Korea tendering for 25,000 mt. non GMO US Soybeans for Dec. -- AgResource issued a new Soybean production estimate of 3.094 bil.bu. They are estimating a national average yield of 41.8 bu. per acre. They estimate 2006/07 ending stocks at 570 mil.bu. vs. the USDA August estimate of 450 mil.bu. -- Another report out of Brazil forcasting lower Soybean plantings for 2006/07, AgRural is estimating plantings at 20.7 mil. hectares vs. 22.2 mil. last year. They estimate Production at 50.9 to 54.1 mmt. for the 2006/07 crop. -- USDA soy rust website reported small, isolated soybean field in Jackson county in SE Mississippi with signs of the fungus. This is the second county in Mississippi to show the fungus in the 2006 growing season. -- EPA final proposal on renewable fuel standards and renewable fuels production credit trading scheme to be issued today. Final rule is likely to be issued in early 20 -- Funds all on the sell side Wednesday selling 3,000 Soybeans, 1,000 Wheat, 1,500 Meal, 3,500 Oil. -- Soybean spreads: ABN 1,400 SX7/SX, Bunge 700 SX/SX7, 200 SX/SK, MLP 200 SF/SX. -- Deliveries: Soybeans 2,105 no stopper Meal 81 no stopper Oil 329 Term stopped 35 Cash Markets -- CIF Soybeans steady . Sept. +50 to +54, LH Sept. +55 to +62, Oct. +59 to +61, Nov. +67 to +74, Dec. +57 to +62, Jan. +60 to +68. -- Processors: Decatur -20 Danville -15 Bloomington -35 Gibson City -20 -- Board Crush Margins: Sept. 82.00 up .65 Oct. 72.44 up .13 Jan. 75.61 off 1.31 To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me directly Nathan T. Smith III Linn Group nsmith@linngroup.com toll free: (877) 787-6278 local: (312) 896-2090 fax: (312) 896-2050 www.linngroup.com/ DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.
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