Smaller Canadian Special Crop Harvest

WINNIPEG - Sep 1/06 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada now expects total specialty crop production levels in western Canada to fall 17% over last year to 4.44 million metric tons (MT) based on a combination of Statistics Canada and Agriculture Canada yield forecasts.

Statistics Canada's yield estimates are near trend levels, but lower than in 2005-06 for most crops, except higher for dry beans and sunflower seed. Crop abandonment is estimated to be lower than normal.

Harvest progress is ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal, with most of the dry peas, lentils and mustard seed already combined. Harvest is also underway for chickpeas, canary seed and dry beans. The buckwheat and sunflower seed harvests are expected to start in mid and late September, respectively.

Quality is expected to be normal, assuming generally dry conditions during the remainder of the harvest period. The risk of frost damage is generally low for unharvested fields due to the advanced stage of development.

Total supply is expected to decrease by 12% to 5.89 million MT, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease because of the lower supply.

"Average prices, over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to increase for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed, decrease for dry beans and chickpeas, and be the same for buckwheat. The stronger Canadian dollar, compared to the US dollar, is expected to have the largest impact on dry bean and sunflower seed prices, as Canadian prices for these crops are directly related to US prices," Agriculture Canada says.

"The main factors to watch are Canadian weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the remainder of the harvest period. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing and harvest conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, Australia, India and Mexico."

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