Smaller World Rye Harvest Forecast

WINNIPEG - Jun 7/06 - SNS -- International rye production is expected to total 13.2 million metric tons (MT) in 2006-07, according to a recent analysis by Aamir Asgarali, Junior Market Analyst with Agriculture Canada's Market Analysis Division in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

If achieved, the harvest would be down 9% from last season, mainly due to the effect of poor growing conditions on crops in Russia and Ukraine. Production in the European Union and Canada is also expected to decrease. U.S. production is forecast to increase to 213,000 MT from 191,000 MT in 2005-06.

Canada's rye area fell 8%, from 226,000 hectares in 2005-06 to 207,000 hectares in 2006-07 because of increased competition from alternative crops. Yields are forecast to be lower than 2005-06. As a result, Canadian rye production is forecast to decrease to 310,000 MT in 2006-07, from 359,000 MT in 2005-06. Due to lower production, supply in Canada is forecast to decrease by 7% in 2006- 2007. Exports are forecast to decrease to 110,000 MT. Domestic use is expected to decrease due to lower feed use.

World trade is expected to increase by 7% from 2005-06 to 565,000 MT, with imports by Japan decreasing slightly while imports by the U.S. remain the same as 2005-06. Imports by Russia and Ukraine are expected to increase. Exports by the European Union are forecast to increase, despite lower supplies, as the European Union endeavors to deplete intervention stocks of rye. The increase in European Union exports is expected to go to other European countries.

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