Specialty Stocks a Work in Progress

VANCOUVER - May 10/06 - SNS -- Statistics Canada's specialty crop March 31 stocks in all positions estimates are still something of a work in progress, with the relationship between those numbers and the final ending stocks sometimes yielding surprising results.

This was especially true when Statistics Canada first starting publishing the data and more true of the widely grown specialty crops examined -- canary, mustard and sunflower seed -- than for the more widely grain lentils and field peas.

The biggest problems were in 2002 and 2003 when inferred domestic usage levels for mustard were negative in both years, and negative in 2003 for canaryseed. Inferred domestic usage is calculated by subtracting known exports and the July 31 ending stocks from March 31 stocks.

Getting a handle on the relationship between the two stock levels is important for markets trying to come to terms with available supplies and projected ending stocks. Obviously, when stocks are negative, growers understated what was in their bins in March or, initially, at some prior point in time.

When stocks are higher than expected, they quickly beg the question of whether prior stock estimates were low or if something else is at play in markets. Sadly, the answer may not be quickly apparent.

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