Large Drop in Canadian Special Crop Area

VANCOUVER - Apr 28/06 - SNS -- It appears Canadian specialty crop seedings could drop 14% this season unless markets encourage them to seed those crops on the increased summerfallow area they have pencilled in for this season.

Commenting on the seeding intentions report, Agriculture Canada correctly notes, "The actual seeded areas may differ from the intentions due to changes in the market outlook and expected prices, producer reaction to the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report and soil moisture conditions at the time of seeding.

"To date, only a small amount of seeding has been completed. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the seeding, growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada, as soil moisture reserves are good in most areas, although there are dry areas in northern Alberta and areas of excessive moisture in Manitoba and Saskatchewan."

Based on that, Agriculture Canada reckons total specialty crop production could drop 17% to 4.41 million metric tons (MT). Total supply is expected to decrease by 12% to 5.90 million MT, as higher carry-in stocks offset some of the decrease in production.

"The main factors to watch are weather conditions, especially precipitation, during the seeding, growing and harvest periods in Canada. Other factors to watch are the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, ocean shipping rates and growing conditions in the major producing regions, especially the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Australia, India and Mexico."

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