Seeding Intentions Mostly a Surprise

VANCOUVER - Apr 25/06 - SNS -- Canada's seeding intentions report for specialty crops was nothing, if not an equal mix of surprising, shocking, and completely and somewhat expected numbers.

Market participants were caught off guard by the steep declines forecast for Canadian lentil and canaryseed plantings; while forecast field pea area was in line with trade expectations. Not surprisingly, there was no instance where seeding intentions were above the expectations of the industry. Total specialty crop area could be down almost 14% from last year at 6.49 million acres instead of basically unchanged.

There can be a tremendous difference between the March seeding intentions and what is actually planted. This may never be more true than this season, with Canadian agricultural producers saying they intend to increase summerfallow area from 10.16 to 11.71 million acres.

Statistics Canada said this reflects the fact "many farmers were not sure what they were going to plant. On the Prairies, this uncertainty was reflected in an anticipated 14.9% increase in summerfallow area." Most of the jump is in Saskatchewan, the most important specialty crop producing province. Summerfallow is mooted to jump 29.4% to 8.15 million acres.

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