Some Surprises in USDA Numbers

CHICAGO - Apr 10/06 - SNS -- International agricultural commodity markets started the week on a relatively quiet note, with many market participants eager to see the outcome of the latest USDA supply and demand forecasts before getting on with business.

The USDA latest supply and demand forecasts for corn contain a 50 million bushel reduction in the forecast size of this season's ending stocks from 2,350 million to 2,300 million bushels. The change reflects a 50 million bushel increase in forecast exports to 1,950 million bushels from last month's outlook.

The forecast decline in corn ending stocks is half of that expected by the trade, who were looking for stocks to drop by about 100 million bushels to 2.25 billion bushels.

The USDA expects the season average corn price to range between U.S. $1.95 to $2.05 per bushel, up 10 cents on the low end from last month.

The USDA decreased forecast ending stocks for all classes of wheat from 542 to 532 million bushels, based on a 10 million reduction in forecast domestic use and a 15 million bushel increase in forecast export activity. The decline in forecast wheat ending stocks was a little larger than expected by the trade, which predicted the USDA would reduce it to between 535-540 million bushels.

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