Mediocre Income Forecast for Western Canada

VANCOUVER - Jan 26/06 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada is expecting specialty crop seedings in western Canada to inch down this year, slipping 1.8% to 7.378 million acres, as forecast gains in field pea and chickpea area are offset by declines in lentils, canary, mustard and sunflower seed.

Slightly better than average yields would see total output drop 8.1% to 4.908 million metric tons (MT), with field pea output expected to slip 59,800 MT to 3.04 million.

It is important to note that Agriculture Canada's 2006 forecasts are not based on objective surveys and do not represent an official statement about what will be grown this year. Only Statistics Canada surveys Canadian seeding intentions.

Agriculture Canada's analysis puts a lot of emphasis on budget forecasts for individual crops across western Canada. Those do not paint a great picture for a lot of crops grown in the region.

For Manitoba, Agriculture Canada expects the best net returns per hectare to be delivered by oats at CDN $131 per hectare. Sixty dollar crops include confectionery sunflower, milling wheat, flaxseed and soybeans. Canola and food grade peas provide margin returns of CDN $2 and $35 per hectare, respectively. Feed peas and feed barley are seen as losers for Manitoba growers, generating losses of $15 and $47 per hectare, respectively.

Growers in Saskatchewan's brown soil zone are forecast to do best with large kabuli chickpeas, which Agriculture Canada predicts could net $22 per hectare in 2006-07. Desi chickpeas are only forecast to return $30 per hectare, while large green lentils generate a net of $14 and yellow mustard seed a loss of $18 per hectare. Wheat looks much better, with Agriculture Canada forecasting net returns of $54 for spring and $44 for durum. Like Manitoba, feed barley is seen as a loser, generating a net of minus $49 per hectare.

Black soil zone growers in Saskatchewan will do best with wheat, malting barley and oats, Agriculture Canada says, generating net returns of $42, $52 and $42 per hectare. Special crops, it asserts, are dogs, generating a net of just $6 for yellow peas, compared to losses of $23 for feed peas and $79 per hectare for canaryseed. Oilseeds are not much better, with flaxseed forecast to generate a $9 net per hectare, while canola loses $4.

Alberta growers are looking at similar results. Kabuli chickpeas is the best income generating crop for the province's brown soil zone, generating a forecast $433 per hectare in 2006-07. It is followed by large green lentils at a forecast $102 per hectare, canola at $63, milling wheat at $45 and durum at $25. Feed barley is forecast to generate a net loss of $51 per hectare, compared to a $27 loss for yellow mustard.

Producers in Alberta's black soil zone might want to think about taking the year off, Agriculture Canada's crop budgets suggest. Only spring wheat and durum make money, at a forecast net of $12 and $7 per hectare. Feed barley and oats will cost $65 and $46 per hectare more to grow than they will return from markets. Losses on canola are forecast at $10 per hectare, while feed peas lose $7 and feed peas a $55 per hectare.

Subscribers can read the full text of the article by Clicking here