U.S. Hog Herd Expansion Likely

CHICAGO - Oct 4/05 - SNS -- There are hints hog producers in the United States are no longer content to maintain current production levels and are considering expanding the herd, believes Chris Hurt, an economist with Purdue University.

"(T)he market is asking U.S. producers to expand, but so far the response has been, no!," Hurt said. "Are U.S. producers also sending the signal that they would rather have producers in other countries expand, or has there just been too much uncertainty to make the first move? Producers need to make up their minds in the next six months, and my expectation is that U.S. producers will vote for greater expansion."

Hurt says the current period of profitability began in the second quarter of 2004 and is now expected to continue at least through the summer of 2006, "resulting in at least 10 consecutive quarters of positive margins. The last time that occurred was from 1985 to 1988 when the hog market registered 12 consecutive quarters of margins in the black."

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