Agriculture Canada Expects 29% More Specialties

VANCOUVER - Sep 10/04 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada is forecasting a 29% increase in the size of this year's specialty crop harvest to 4.73 million metric tons (MT).

Even so, total pulse and special crops supply is expected to increase by only 21% to 5.28 million MT, because of lower carry-in stocks. Although exports and domestic use are forecast to increase due to the higher supply, strong demand and lower prices for most crops, carry-out stocks are also expected to increase.

Average prices, over all grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2003-04 for dry beans, chickpeas and sunflower seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, and be the same for buckwheat. However, prices are expected to be volatile due to the late harvest and uncertainty about production volumes.

Agriculture Canada added that crop development "is behind normal, by as much as four weeks, due to seeding delays and below normal temperatures during the growing period. Frost has occurred in most agricultural areas of western Canada. There has been damage in terms of quantity and quality, but the full extent of the damage will not be known until harvest is complete.

"Harvest progress is significantly behind normal. Average yields are forecast to be near trend, but abandonment is expected to be higher than normal due to damage from frost and excessive moisture. Average quality is expected to be lower than normal. Warm dry weather is needed to bring the crops to maturity and for harvesting.

"However, the average temperatures are gradually decreasing and the risk of additional frost damage is high. Other factors which could cause additional damage are rain and snow. There are some areas where the soil is so saturated that harvest equipment can't work on it. The main factors to watch in Canada are precipitation and temperatures, crop development, and harvest progress. Other factors to watch are exchange rates and crop conditions in the major producing countries, especially the US, Australia and India."

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